The AHR999 Indicator: A Dead-Simple Way to Stop Panic-Buying Bitcoin

I Used to Be That Guy

You know the type. Sees Bitcoin dump 20% — buys. Sees it pump 40% — buys more. Checks the price every 11 minutes while pretending to work. Ends up down 60% wondering what went wrong.

That was me. Then I found the AHR999 indicator, and at least now my bad decisions are informed bad decisions.

So What Is It?

AHR999 is a Bitcoin market timing indicator created by a Chinese analyst who goes by — you guessed it — “ahr999.” The concept is simple: it tells you whether Bitcoin is cheap, fair, or expensive relative to two baselines:

1. 200-day geometric moving average (what you’d have paid if you’d been dollar-cost averaging for the past 200 days)
2. Exponential growth model (where Bitcoin “should” be based on how old it is)

Divide price by both, multiply them together, and you get a single number.

The Formula

AHR999 = (Price / 200-day MA) × (Price / Exponential Growth Valuation)

Where:

Exponential Growth Valuation = 10^[5.84 × log(coin_age_in_days) - 17.01]

coin_age is measured from Bitcoin’s genesis block: January 3, 2009.

The resulting index typically falls between 0.45 and 7. Here’s the cheat sheet:

TradingView Pine Script

If you want this on your charts, here’s the full script:

// © elanchou
//@version=5
indicator('Hodl Bitcoin: AHR999 Investment Index', shorttitle='AHR999 Index', overlay=false)

birth_day = '2009-01-03'
coin_age = (math.round(time_close / 1000) - 1230912000) / (60 * 60 * 24)
coin_price = math.pow(10, 5.84 * math.log10(coin_age) - 17.01)

price = input(title='Source', defval=close)
per = input(title='Length', defval=200)
lmean = math.log(price)
smean = math.sum(lmean, per)
gma = math.exp(smean / per)

index = close / coin_price * (close / gma)
plot(index, title = "AHR999 Index", color = index > 1 ? color.lime : index > 0.45 ? color.orange : color.red)

h0 = hline(0, title='', linewidth=0)
h1 = hline(0.45, title='Bottom Fishing Range', linewidth=2)
h2 = hline(1.2, title='Investment Range', linewidth=2)
fill(h1, h2, color=color.new(color.green, 90))
fill(h0, h1,color=color.new(color.red, 90))

dt = time - time[1]
if barstate.islast
    label1 = label.new(time + 400 * dt, 1.20, text='DCA Benchmark: 1.2', xloc=xloc.bar_time)
    label2 = label.new(time + 400 * dt, 0.45, text='All-in Benchmark: 0.45', xloc=xloc.bar_time)

    label.set_style(label1, label.style_label_down)
    label.set_style(label2, label.style_label_down)
    label.set_color(label1, color.black)
    label.set_textcolor(label1, color.lime)
    label.set_color(label2, color.black)
    label.set_textcolor(label2, color.lime)

    if 0.45 < index and index <= 1.2
        label3 = label.new(time, index + 0.05, text='Index: ' + str.tostring(index) + '\nDCA Zone', xloc=xloc.bar_time)
        label.set_color(label3, color.green)
        label.set_textcolor(label3, color.white)

    if index <= 0.45
        label3 = label.new(time, index + 0.05, text='Index: ' + str.tostring(index) + '\nALL IN', xloc=xloc.bar_time)
        label.set_color(label3, color.red)
        label.set_textcolor(label3, color.white)

    if index > 1.2
        label3 = label.new(time, index + 0.05, text='Index: ' + str.tostring(index) + '\nHOLD / TRIM', xloc=xloc.bar_time)
        label.set_color(label3, color.blue)
        label.set_textcolor(label3, color.white)

Paste that into TradingView on the BTC/USD chart. Green zone = buy more. Red zone = stop buying. Blue = sit on your hands and feel smug.

Does It Actually Work?

Historically? Pretty well. It’s not magic — no indicator is — but it does a good job of keeping you from buying at obvious peaks and nudging you toward obvious bottoms.

The real value isn’t the formula. It’s the discipline. Having a number removes the emotional guesswork. Instead of “vibes say buy,” you get “index says 0.38, so I’m buying.” Huge difference.

The Honest Caveat

This is not financial advice. I’m a developer who got into crypto and built a TradingView script. AHR999 is one lens among many. Past performance, future results, you know the drill.

But if you’re the kind of person who panic-buys and panic-sells, having any systematic framework is better than none. Start here.